Iran has signalled that it desires de-escalation: It has said as much to the UN. With an ongoing war in Gaza, Israel will probably welcome the chance to defer the “day of judgement” with Iran and focus on the task at hand. The US also seems to be urging Israel in this direction—as are Israel’s neighbors. If Israel does counterattack, it will probably be in a way that grants them deniability so that Iran does not feel the need to escalate further. Iran appears to have engaged in this attack mostly in order to save face. A cyberattack, or absent that a kinetic strike, against the Shahed drone building facilities is the most likely form of retaliation: Or some other portion of their missile production capability, with an attack on nuclear research facilities being the second most likely. (Of course, an attack on the Shahed drone building facilities will have the added benefit of aiding Ukraine—and the additional cost of bothering the Russians. That said, the use of the drones against Israel has opened this door, and it would curry favor with the West.)
So, It Looks like I Was Wrong
So, It Looks like I Was Wrong
So, It Looks like I Was Wrong
Iran has signalled that it desires de-escalation: It has said as much to the UN. With an ongoing war in Gaza, Israel will probably welcome the chance to defer the “day of judgement” with Iran and focus on the task at hand. The US also seems to be urging Israel in this direction—as are Israel’s neighbors. If Israel does counterattack, it will probably be in a way that grants them deniability so that Iran does not feel the need to escalate further. Iran appears to have engaged in this attack mostly in order to save face. A cyberattack, or absent that a kinetic strike, against the Shahed drone building facilities is the most likely form of retaliation: Or some other portion of their missile production capability, with an attack on nuclear research facilities being the second most likely. (Of course, an attack on the Shahed drone building facilities will have the added benefit of aiding Ukraine—and the additional cost of bothering the Russians. That said, the use of the drones against Israel has opened this door, and it would curry favor with the West.)