Was there a second lab leak? The phylogenetics of Omicron are strange, very strange---it is more related to the original Covid-19 than to any other variant, as if it emerged out of a time machine straight from 2020. History has given us another example of this, the 1977 Russian flu which seemed directly related to a 1949 outbreak. The mainstream explanation for this is that the 1949 flu had been kept in a Soviet lab for study and that it escaped though some argue it was an accidental byproduct of live vaccine trials in China. (What is it with commies and lab leaks?)
I once thought that you could intentionally design a more benign, more contagious variant as a kind of "unavoidable vaccine"---but it is hard to believe they actually did that. It is one thing to discuss as an interesting theoretical possibility and another to actually do it.
The HIV patient theory---I disagree with Weinstein---could lead to rapid evolution: The analogy would be a soldier who become a hardened veteran because he fought in some minor battles, then medium, before going into a major battle. The small missions added to his skill without him getting killed. Fighting a weakened immune system is "learning by sparring." A minor selection pressure can produce mutation while a too fierce one simply wipes out the population. It also allows more viral replication and more recombination. However, nothing about the HIV story explains the fact that this virus is more related to the original covid-19 than to the subsequent variants.
Where the HIV theory seems to fail, however, is that we don't see HIV patients producing a large number of variants in other viruses---even other coronaviruses. Why would Covid-19 be special? The HIV patient origin does not make sense.
And now, there is a peer reviewed paper that suggests Omicron may have evolved in mice. Where do people and mice come into frequent contact?
Furthermore, the HIV patient origin for omicron does not explain the "time machine" aspect of this. This is strange, really strange. A leak, however, does seem to provide a tidy explanation for this fact even if it is hard to swallow emotionally. How could another leak happen so close to the original lab leak? Did we not learn our lesson?
Another factor that seems to argue for a second lab leak is the large number of active to inactive genetic mutations in this strain. In nature, most mutations are inert—they don’t affect the form or behavior of the organism. In this instance, most of the genetic mutations have actually changed the organism. This is highly suspicious.
If anyone has another explanation for Omicron being more closely related to the original virus than other variants, I am all ears.
An interesting video on this topic: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hjFT8XCsH0