It is clear that Iran was directly involved in the planning of the October 7th attacks, despite the Biden administration’s obnoxiously stupid claims that they “see no evidence,” for the following reasons:
1) Iran’s government has been publicly celebrating the attacks even though, given the accusations of involvement, the natural reaction would be to distance themselves from them if they had not actually been involved.
2) Hamas was using rockets that had substantially longer range than the ones they are domestically capable of manufacturing. Iran is the only state with such technology that would be willing to supply Hamas with it at this time.
3) The attacks showed a degree of planning and sophistication that suggests professional military planning: Again, what nation state would aid Hamas at this point in time.
4) The attacks favor the strategic interests of Iran more than those of Hamas itself
This one requires some explanation, but this attack offers Hamas nothing strategically in and of itself: Indeed, Israel will probably force Hamas’s leadership to flee Gaza when it inevitably counter-attacks. So, the only thing this attack could gain Hamas is continued funding from a larger, nation-state ally. The attack is simply so massive and horrific that Israel it takes negotiation off the table. An occassional bombing is one thing, but this really is an invasion. If Israel concedes anything to Hamas after this, it will be putting its national sovereignty at risk and inviting further attacks. The support of a nation-state with advanced weapons is the only thing that could justify such a move.
But for Iran, the advantages that such an attack offers are clear. They make it harder for Saudi Arabia and Jordan to cooperate with Israel against Iran. They interfere with the detente that Donald Trump helped create. Iran is the only country that benefits from this. Building on peace deals with Egypt and Jordan, further detente between Israel and other Gulf Arab states could create a chain of American allies linking three key choke points of global trade—the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab Al Mandeb connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea: Indeed, it is clear why Iran would be desperate to prevent this. (Interestingly, Russia might also be keen to prevent this as well).
5) Leaders within Hezbollah have discussed Iran’s involvement openly.
6) There have been meetings between the IRGC and Hamas militants in Beirut.
So, it should be clear what Iran’s strategy is here: Distract Israel with a series of proxy conflicts before conducting their own attack against a much weakened and depleted Israel—perhaps after they have used fissile material, possibly provided by Russia, to develop their own atomic arsenal if not a thermonuclear one. Hezbollah is probably waiting till the Israeli operation to free the hostages held in the Gaza Strip begins before conducting its own attack; indeed, Egypt has been warning Israel of precisely this eventuality.
So, Israel knows that if they do not hit at Iran now, these attacks will continue. Joe Biden, on the other hand, has to know that his attempts to come to an agreement with Iran now look utterly foolish: And it is also clear that the US must utterly demolish a country for choosing to ally itself with the Russia-China axis. This event is the perfect opportunity to make an example of someone for choosing to side with Russia and China, and it has the ancillary benefit of choking off some portion of Russia’s weapon supplies (though not as many as it would have earlier as now some of those drone facilities have been built in Russia). In short, both the US and Israel have very good reasons to eviscerate Iran, and it is really only a matter of two playing a game of chicken regarding who is actually going to go about it.
So, the final question becomes, did Russia know about this and did Russia condone this action in any way. Medvedev’s own statements look suspicious in this regard: “Clashes between Hamas and Israel on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War come as an expected development.” Now, Medvedev does tend to take a hard line on things, but he rarely speaks in a way that the Kremlin would disapprove of. Perhaps more telling, however, is the behavior of pro-Russian hackers in the aftermath of the attacks: Cyber Warfare, pro-Russia hackers declare war on Israel (difesaesicurezza.com) These hacker groups do not act without the approval of the Kremlin, and it is unlikely that Iran would have acted against Israel without Russia’s (and China’s) approval given their importance to them as a potential source of fissile material as well as missile expertise, in the case of Russia, and as a trading partner in the case of China.
I know Iran was involved: But the reactions of Russia and China, and particularly Russia, seem quite suspect as well.