Unlike the war in Ukraine, where other intelligence agencies wrongly disagreed with the US intelligence assessment, here there is overwhelming unanimity: Indeed, airlines have begun changing their routes to avoid flying over Iranian airspace. It is a forgone conclusion that Iran and Israel will be at war by the end of the week if not sooner.
However, I think it is also quite likely Iran will strike at a US embassy—and may even strike civilians in the mainland US; I place the probability at about 30%. Of course, this is a strategically stupid move, and Iran has—up to now—played the geopolitical game quite cleverly though without achieving their true goals. However, except for providing aid to Hamas and encouraging the October 7th attacks, Iran has achieved almost none of its goals. Frustration may lead them to foolishness. Indeed, it is even possible that China or Russia has promised Iran much desired nuclear or military technology—as well as a special place within the BRICS—in exchange for an attack against a US installation that they wrongly calculate won’t bring direct retaliation against Tehran. After all, the US has not managed to defeat the Houthi terrorists preventing transit through the Suez Canal. This failure may embolden Iran to attack US assets directly. An attack by Iran, using Iranian missiles, directly against Israel may, esp. if it is combined with a terrorist attack against the US, may force the US to intervene.
That said, the imminent war between Iran and Israel (whether or not the US becomes involved) has a silver lining attached to it: First, Israel is likely to win despite their engagement in Gaza. It will, after all, be an air war. That said, Israel may not be able to provide the same level of air support to its troops if a full-blown war with Iran commences—needing to preserve both planes and ordinance for use against Iran. Ground resources will also be diverted from Gaza as it is almost certain that Hezbollah will attack Israel to blunt any Israeli counterattack against Iran. Israel may have to pull out of Gaza: That said, this is not actually good for the Gazans as Israel will likely leave a force around Gaza strong enough to enforce a blockade while using the rest of its ground forces to arrest Hezbollah attacks. Of course, idiots who supposedly care about Palestinians will cheer the attack on Israel, betraying their antisemitism and/or their ignorance of military affairs. Second, it is also likely to force the Republicans’ hands as the Democrats can easily tie aid to Israel with providing aid to Ukraine.
The downside is, of course, that China might take the opportunity to attack Taiwan. And, I believe, if you have a war between Ukraine and Russia, a general war in the Middle East, and a war in Asia, you are pretty much in a world war: A world war where the possibility of nuclear escalation is very high.
In almost every respect, the error Iran is about to make will be good for the US if further escalation can be avoided: But Israel, and possibly the world, could pay a terrible cost.