Prighozin’s coup attempt was somewhat unexpected. However, here are some of my thoughts on what may be going on.
Possible causes:
It is very unlikely that Prighozin would have done this if his lifewere not directly in danger. The fact that Wagner’s soldiers are going along with this suggests that the organization is either extremely loyal to its leaders and/or that they were severely mistreated by the Russian MOD.
The other possibility is that Prighozin did this in order to threaten the MOD’s supply lines, thus ensuring that Wagner gets what it wants, but without threatening Putin himself. That said, Prighozin’s own statements undermine this theory: Why say you are on a march to justice if you are actually just securing supplies?
Could Prighozin be doing this on Putin’s orders in order to provide cover for a withdrawal from Ukraine? If Prighozin conveniently finds a way to escape Russia, i.e. is not killed, this theory will become much more likely. It might seem absurd, but the situation is already absurd. Another possibility is that this was done to give Putin an excuse to arrest Shigou and Gerasimov. That said, like the Kremlin drone attacks, this makes Putin look weak. For that reason alone, it is likely not some sort of regime approved ruse.
Another thing to consider here is that real coup attempts generally involve seizing the media and arresting or capturing the current regime’s leaders: The reason for this is that a coup is much more likely to succeed if neutral parties feel that it is a done deal. Most people, after all, just want to be on the winning side, and if the media is saying one side already won, well, it can lead to the coup receiving far more support than it normally would. Surely someone in Wagner knows this, yet there were no attempts to assassinate Russian leaders in Moscow or to seize radio or TV stations. This increases the chance that the coup is really just a negotiating tactic for Prighozin or a cover for a Russian withdrawal.
Here is how I access the probabilities:
65%, elaborate negotiating tactic on Prigozhin’s part
20% real coup attempt
9% in coordination with Putin, cover for a withdrawal or an excuse to remove Shigou and Gerasimov
5% an elaborate ruse to cover the redeployment of Wagner troops to Belarus for another strike on Kiev
1% other
Questions:
Why wasn’t Putin able to smash Prighozin’s column with air power?
Possibly answer, he may have worried about the effect of destroying a key highway Russia needs both economically and logistically for its war in Ukraine. Even so, even incendiary devices should have been able to slow the column without permanently harming the roadway, and asphalt roadways are relatively easy to repair. It is possible that Prighozin’s seizure of Rostov gave him leverage over the MOD—If Putin destroyed his advancing column with airpower, Wagner soldiers might destroy Russia’s supplies and logistical facilities in Rostov.
Why has Prighozin turned back? If this is genuine, and not some sort of stunt meant to give Putin cover for withdrawing from Ukraine, Prighozin must know he is a dead man.
Why didn’t Prighozin just take Rostov and claim that he “would be handling the war’s logistics from here on out”? This would have given him leverage over the DOD without losing Putin’s loyalty.
Has the crisis already been resolved?
Why didn’t Prighozin coordinate with the “Free Russian Legion” and with Ukraine? These additional forces might have improved his odds. Of course, it is possible, he thought that their inclusion would harm his chance of finding allies within the regime.
Why didn’t Ukraine take advantage of the chaos? Were they simply caught by surprise? Perhaps they wanted to see how things would play out before taking action.
It looks like Prighozin has made some sort of deal to stop his attack on Moscow that involves relocating to Belarus. However, it is hard to believe that Belarus will really secure Prighozin’s safety. In order to truly be safe, he will have to cross over into Poland and make some sort of deal for asylum there. If this is true, what becomes of the Wagner group? Will they be folded into the regular Russian Army or become part of Sergie Shogyi’s PMC Patriot? Putin will likely become distrustful of the whole PMC enterprise given what happened: And since PMC Patriot is involved heavily in the fighting around Advika, this might create a tactical opportunity for the Ukrainians there.
Some additional questions: Where will Prighozin end up? As his father is Jewish, as well as his stepfather, he has the right of return to Israel. Five eyes countries would also be interested in getting access to him. That said, if Putin betrays Prigozhin Wagner soldiers will doubt the safety guarantees Putin has given them: Putin will not want to start an insurgency. He will wait for the Wagner soldiers to age a little bit, lose their military skills and connections, and then take action. Prigozhin should not stay in Belarus for too long, however.