Ukraine War Update
A senior Ukrainian official has warned that Russia could reconstitute itself as a serious threat to Ukraine in the long run, despite facing severe force generation problems. The official noted that Russian crypto-mobilization efforts are stagnating due to growing awareness among Russians that casualty rates for Russian soldiers in Ukraine are high.
According to the official, regional recruitment quotas for the first quarter of 2023 have been met at a meager rate in certain regions. For example, Volgograd Oblast and Saratov Oblast have only met seven percent and 14 percent of their regional recruitment quotas, respectively. This indicates that Russia struggles to find willing recruits to fight in Ukraine.
However, the official cautioned that Ukraine and its allies must not underestimate Russia's force generation capabilities in the long run for a protracted war of attrition. While Defense Minister Shoigu announced plans to form 12 new maneuver divisions over several years, Russia has not yet taken the necessary measures to support large-scale Russian force generation. The official stated that various current efforts would generate some additional combat power in the short term but will do so with diminishing marginal returns at increasing costs.
This means that Russia cannot currently conduct multiple major offensive operations simultaneously. Nonetheless, the risk of a long-term threat remains, and Ukraine and its allies must remain vigilant. It seems likely that Russia will try to hold through the Summer. They will attempt another major offensive on the war’s second anniversary. I still believe Russia will eventually try to take Moldova and use it as a staging point for a two-pronged attack on Odessa. To win, Russia must make Ukraine a landlocked country and gain a foothold in the West so that they can interfere with the supply lines coming through Lviv.
In another development, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly personally approved the arrest of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich on espionage charges. Bloomberg reported on April 12 that Putin approved the arrest before the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested Gershkovich in Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk Oblast on March 30 for collecting information constituting a state secret about the activities of a Russian military-industrial complex enterprise. Putin's reported personal involvement in the arrest suggests that it was likely a retaliatory response to the US arrest of Russian national Sergey Cherkasov on March 24 on charges of acting as an agent of a foreign power.
The FSB has also claimed to have identified the individuals responsible for assassinating milblogger Maxim Fomin on April 13. The FSB stated that alleged Ukrainian Security Service agents worked with the Russian Anti-Corruption Foundation to track Fomin for months and eventually assassinate him. One has to wonder why Ukraine is assassinating milbloggers and obscure intellectuals. It may be that Ukraine is trying to demonstrate its capabilities without encouraging too much escalation. That said, whenever they kill a milblogger or a pontificator, they are wasting assets that could be used to kill government officials. Demonstrating their ability to assassinate will only encourage Russia to tighten its security. Ukraine should hold this capability in reserve or attack more valuable targets.
Meanwhile, Russian forces have continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line and have made gains in Bakhmut. They have also continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Lastly, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to feud with St. Petersburg authorities, allegedly obstructing Wagner Group recruitment efforts. I believe Ukraine could gain a lot if they could stage an assassination attempt on high-level Wagner Group officials and make it look like the Russian government did it.
A more detailed analysis of the “Thug Shaker Leaks” will appear in tomorrow’s post.