A number of democrats on Twitter are blaming Trump for the situation in Ukraine. In all seriousness, if any reader of this blog has an argument regarding how this could be the case, please post it. I am sincerely curious. If the argument is that Trump is a Russian asset or was too easy on Russia, well, then why didn’t Russia do this on his watch?
The closest thing to an argument I see is the claim that Trump’s withholding of aid to Ukraine is responsible. Might I point out that Biden, as VP, also threatened to withhold aid to Ukraine. However, more germanely, it is hard to believe even the loss of 400 million in aid could be said to have caused this crisis—let alone a mere delay in receiving it. That is a pittance in terms of deterring the Russian war machine. Do recall Ukraine did, after all, receive the aid despite the delay.
Here, on the other hand, are reasons I could think to blame Biden.
1. He is the fucking president.
2. His botching of the Afghanistan withdrawal signaled weakness. It likely led Putin to believe that Biden could never manage a resistance effort if he cannot even properly organize an evacuation.
3. His poor showing in public talks/interviews may have given the impression he was not fully competent mentally---or not up to the task of handling a crisis.
4. He took no action to avoid the expansion of NATO under Obama, which seems to have fueled the paranoia that prompted this action. Furthermore, the Bidens' business relationships to Ukraine under Obama may have given Putin the feeling that Biden would be unduly favorable to the country. Furthermore, his connection to the Obama administration, whom Putin blames for the Maidan Revolution, may have incited fears that Biden would continue Obama’s policies.
5. He made comments regarding how a "minor incursion" might not lead to the same consequences as a larger one, which could have encouraged the occupation of the separatist regions we are now seeing.
6. By passing sanctions on Russia in the first half of 2021, he may have made Russia certain of NATO’s and the new administration’s malice and, ironically, reduced the cost of invading—the more you sanction, the lower the opportunity cost associated with more sanctions. After all, the closer you get to maximum sanctions, the smaller the additional sanctions become.
7. His, relative, history of passivism in the Senate might have caused Putin to think he would be unlikely to retaliate with direct military force.
8. By reducing US energy production (for example, by shutting down the keystone pipeline, taking action against fracking, ending the leasing of USG owned land for oil production, etc.), he increased the world’s reliance on Russian energy, giving Russia leverage. Indeed, Russia seems to time these moves to coincide with high oil prices (and US elections). Consider the earlier cases of 2008 and 2014.
Perhaps most importantly, however, the efforts to blame Trump ignore the role NATO expansion and the Maidan Revolution played in fomenting the current crisis—policies pursued not by Trump but by Trump’s predecessors, most particularly Barack Hussein Obama. If it were not for the removal of Yanukovych, and the US State Department’s perceived role in it, it is very unlikely that Putin would have felt the need to intervene. It is very strange indeed to blame Trump for something that can so directly be traced to the actions of his predecessor, Obama.
Please, I won’t criticize or argue back (other readers may though but are encouraged to do so politely): What is the thinking behind blaming Trump?
[For one other plausible theory, please see the comments I added below. I am not adding them to the article itself because I don’t want to change the article people “liked.”]
It just occurred to me that the strongest argument for this being Trump's fault is one the media has, interestingly enough, refused to make: Namely, that it is the consequence of Trump pulling out of the INF treaty (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty). Of course, Trump stated that his reason was to deter Chinese aggression in the South China Sea: And, of course, Biden has not gone out of his way to reinstate the treaty. So, even here, it would be hard to argue that this was Trump's fault. (Also, it would go against the "Trump is a Putin asset" line).
https://www.gibsondunn.com/biden-administration-imposes-additional-sanctions-on-russia/