Ukraine and Pelosi's Bad Diplomatic Thinking
There is absolutely no logic in Pelosi’s declaration that she will increase the economic sanctions against Russia even if Putin backs down: By doing this, Pelosi reduces Putin’s incentive to pull back. Implementing sanctions no matter what Putin does reduces, to use economic jargon, the opportunity cost associated with invasion. Putin might think "I have already incurred half the cost of invading, might as well..." Furthermore, incurring significant economic sanctions without the glory of military conquest might be more destabilizing to Putin's leadership position than incurring stronger sanctions that the Russian people see as the cost of military victory. Such thinking on the part of the Russian people may indeed be an example of the sunk cost fallacy, but fallac: ies can shape public perception almost as readily as truths. If the Russian people get hit with sanctions and Putin has nothing to show for it, Putin’s power will find itself under threat—and Putin cannot afford that.
Pelosi’s suggestion is not only bad strategy; however, it violates long standing political norms. She wants to punish Russia for holding a military exercise on its own territory (and that of a nearby ally) because it frightened the American establishment even though Putin, as the leader of a sovereign nation, had every right to: It is absurd. And not only that, but it is wildly inconsistent. Late last year, China flew thirty-eight planes into the Taiwanese defense zone, as part of two separate events, but no action whatsoever was taken against China? https://www.theguardian.com/.../taiwan-reports-largest...
China engages in these sorts of displays inside Taiwanese territory all the time: But we are going to hold Russia accountable for moving troops within their borders and the borders of their ally Belarus? By allowing China to intimidate Taiwan through actually violating its airspace while treating (an albeit massive) military exercise on Russia’s own soil as an act of war is tantamount to telling China that we fear them and, worse, that we already consider Taiwan to be Chinese territory. The double standard is not only astounding—it sends a dangerous message to China.
Further evidence that economic thinking is alien to democrats who don't specifically have economic training (sadly, when they do have it, it is still riddled with Keynesian biases).