Thoughts on Russia's New Overall Commander in Ukraine: Alexander Dvornikov
Predictions Regarding How His Appointment Will Likely Change the War in Ukraine
Alexander Dvornikov, who was responsible for the Russian efforts in Syria, has now been given complete command over the "special military operation." He seems competent and is known for his brutality.
He is suspected of personally okaying the Kramatorsk railway station attack.
His appointment, along with the shift towards the East, makes this a good time to take stock of how this may change the war. Here are some predictions.
Things that will change:
1) Dvornikov's campaign in Syria shows that he has a very, very strong understanding of the importance of airpower and how to achieve air supremacy. We can expect increased and more intelligent use of both aircraft and SAM batteries. Because he understands the importance of air power, but Russia continues to lack precision guided munitions, having likely used up their limited store fighting in Syria, he is likely to resort to large scale aerial bombing. I expect a prolonged campaign against SAM sites followed by large scale bombing---esp. in Mariupol in order to speed up the breakthrough of Russian forces there so that they can participate in an encirclement of the Ukrainian forces looking to support besieged forces in Donbas.
2) Dvornikov spent a significant portion of his career as a tank commander. Expect to see an end to Russia's less than competent use of tanks. Specifically, expect to see tanks deploy on open ground---not along roads, especially as Ukraine's Rasputitsa, the name for its muddy seasons, comes to an end. This mud likely explains some of the use of roads, which have produced the fantastic number of ambushs we have witnessed.
3) He is a product of the old Soviet system of military training having graduated from the Moscow High Command Training School in 1982. Expect aspects of Soviet military doctrine to be reflected in his thinking—specifically those that were characteristic of the time he attended. In fact, he received further training from the Frunze Military Academy, the Soviet Union's most prestigious war college, just before the Soviet Union fell. Those attending this academy were generally considered to be among the best and brightest of Russia’s officer core—so the very fact that he was admitted gives us reason to suspect he is quite competent.
4) Expect the Russians’ tactics to become increasingly heavy handed---including more attacks on civilian targets and less concern for collateral damage. Not only was he directly involved in perpetrating war crimes in Syria, but he was also deeply involved in the military efforts in Grozny. Civilian casualties will likely intensify under his leadership.
5) Having made expert use of airpower in Syria and having commanded both infantry and tank forces, expect to see an increase in competent use of combined arms tactics.
6) There will be less direct interference from the Kremlin, and Putin himself, in the conduct of the war. He has given substantial honors to Dvornikov, including Hero of the Russian Federation, and seems to trust him.
7) He is likely to make greater use of Russia's special forces and more competent troops and less use of conscripts. Conscripts will be used to secure areas taken, but will not be used as the tip of the spear.
8) He is likely to be more concerned with harming Ukraine’s logistical system, as the attack on the railway station demonstrates.
Things that will not change:
1) Being a Soviet era general, he is unlikely to place much trust in his subordinates. Do not expect to see subordinates taking the initiative. However, I do expect to see them fighting harder as he is likely to take ill-discipline very seriously (at least, the refusal to fight kind; he is unlikely to care about rapes and murders).
2) Russia's logistical system, despite his superior skill in that regard, will not be able to fix itself overnight---and will be hampered by sanctions. Expect there to be a slight improvement, due to the fact that Russia is no longer relying on Belarussian rail networks that were subject to sabotage by portions of the Belarussian population. But Russia’s logistical system will remain plagued with problems.