Thinking Through the Aftermath of McCarthy's Removal
A Lot of People Don't Seem to Know How This Works
There are a number of ways this could play out:
1) Some Republicans form a coalition with Democrats:
For starters, it seems that some Democrats really believe that “Republicans in safe seats will defect and elect a Democrat speaker.” This will not happen. This analysis ignores the reality of party primaries: No seat is that safe. Any Republican who does this will be giving his primary opponent a powerful talking point: “This man gave control of the House back to Democrats.” Such a person would be committing political suicide. Furthermore, he would almost certainly face retaliation from his own party at some point in the future, being denied committee assignments—in the long run even if the Democrats throw some short-term ones his way. He certainly will not be given any leadership position in the future: His career in the House will be over.
More importantly, the way nominees are chosen, in party conferences, means that there is no good way to coordinate a defection. Party rules make such cross-party coordination on leadership votes effectively impossible [They are designed to do this]. The Quora Democrats who are speculating on these fantasy scenarios simply don’t understand how the process works in practice.
Certain Republicans, rather stupidly, mentioned this possibility in their speeches: Forgetting that this might actually encourage Democrats to vote for the motion. Obviously, he was trying to break the Gaetz coalition, but it would have been easier to convince Democrats to abstain than to convince the MAGA caucus to deviate from its chosen strategy.
Probability: 2%
2) Democrats Defect and Help Elect a More Moderate Republican Speaker:
For reasons very similar to the above, this is extremely unlikely: Any Democrat who defects will have that used against him in the primary. More importantly, it is not clear how you negotiate a defection given that nominees come out of party caucuses. A Republican is not going to nominate someone who didn’t come out of the caucus, and if a Democrat nominates a moderate Republican, Republicans will “distrust the source” and vote against the person. Coordinating the defection is not easy. Even a single defection is extremely rare in modern politics. Furthermore, they will fear that Democrats will, absent this one person, maintain party unity and split their vote, taking the speakership. I suppose this is not so terrible as long as it is possible to move to vacate immediately upon the person taking office, but it still goes against long-standing party discipline.
Probability 3%
3) Republicans choose a speaker who is to the right of McCarthy and is more acceptable to the “Freedom Caucus.”
This is the second most plausible scenario. Indeed, one thing Democrats forget, is that the more plausible scenarios 1) and 2) seem, the more likely this scenario becomes. The loss of face that comes from allowing the other side to elect your speaker for you simply too great.
Probability 35%
4) Republicans choose a speaker to the center of McCarthy.
This is unlikely, as the Freedom Caucus is likely to create even more trouble than before in this event.
Probability 10%
5) McHenry becomes the Speaker.
I believe this is the most plausible scenario. He will be a natural Schelling point for Republicans as a result of him being the interim speaker, and agreeing to keep him in place and making him speaker avoids the other, scarier options. Again, as the fear of scenario 1) increases, this outcome becomes more and more likely. (In this case, I am exempting McHenry from the other scenarios.)
Probability 47%
6) McCarthy again becomes the Speaker.
Depending on how loyal McHenry is, it is possible that, after a vote to remove Gaetz, McCarthy runs for the speakership again. This would definitely pour cold water on the Democrats, and getting him into the speakership should be easier after Gaetz’s removal. While less likely than McHenry taking the office, this scenario is more likely than the “defection scenarios” so many people on Quora and in the media seem to be going on about.
Probability 10%; updated to 0% as McCarthy just said he won’t run again.
7) Trump or Vivek becomes Speaker.
So, there is actually no requirement that the speaker be a sitting member of the House. As such, within 3) the possibility that Trump, Vivek or some other such figure becomes speaker should not be discounted. Such a move would punish Democrats for their decision to remove McCarthy.
That said, the nomination of Trump is complicated by the fact that Republican party rules forbid the nomination of someone who is currently under indictment. Of course, these rules are not legally binding, and the Republicans could collectively decide to ignore their own rules, but that is not how Republicans roll, generally speaking. The party rules help ensure that the majority party organizes Congress. Republicans will see the risks involved in breaking these rules.
Probability 3%
For whatever reason, a lot of semi-informed people are speculating about defection scenarios. But, given that this is hardly an era of bipartisanship, this is unlikely. What is more likely is that the Republicans either concede more power to the Freedom Caucus or rally around a convenient Schelling point.
P.S. An interesting side note: Apparently, Pelosi encouraged McCarthy to accept the motion to vacate rule in order to become Speaker and promised to back him if this ever became an issue. Either she failed in her promise on purpose or Gaetz timed this move to take advantage of her absence—as she was attending Feinstein’s funeral in California. Either way, something interesting happened here regarding Pelosi’s promise.