The Ukrainian Grain Deal Will Be Extended
Russia needs to maintain the goodwill of North Africa, in no small part because of their own interests in Syria: More importantly, China does not want largescale starvation to interfere with its foreign policy.
As a result, Russia cannot do much more than sabre rattle regarding the grain deal. They can threaten to pull out in the hope that the West makes more concessions, but they cannot carry out that threat. China will not let them.
How does Russia’s own presence in Syria play a role in this? Grain prices will rise in all of North Africa, despite the fact that Ukrainian grain may not be going directly to Syira (apart from grain stolen by Russia from Ukrainian silos), if the grain deal is not extended. It is highly unlikely that Russia would want to do something that could destabilize the situation there—esp. given the strategic value of the naval bases they have in the country.