Why Russia Is Attacking Civilians
The Strategy Behind Russia's Attacks on Civilians in Ukraine: It Isn't Just Barbarism
Russia has continued to attack civilian targets in Ukraine, even as it moves the focus of its attack eastward, where there has historically been more pro-Russian sentiment. Indeed, Russia ostensibly undertook this invasion to protect Russian speaking Ukrainians in the East. Attacking civilians in the East then runs the risk of making even the rather gullible Russian public question the purpose of the “special military operation”: Why then is Russia doing this?
While this post overlaps somewhat with my thoughts on the Bucha massacre, the fact that Russia has continued this behavior despite its Eastward shift has led me to some additional conclusions:
1) Russia is committing atrocities in order to inspire the Ukrainians to start killing POW’s.
This might sound absurd at first; however, consider that---historically speaking---deserting has been punishable by death and that one way of deserting is to surrender without putting up much of a fight. If Russia can provoke Ukraine into giving no quarter to Russian soldiers, Russia can essentially turn the Ukrainian military into a firing squad against people who desert or surrender (since deserting carries with it the risk of capture). By angering the Ukrainians, Putin ensures that his conscripts will fight---and fight hard.
2) Putin is attempting to provoke Ukraine into attacking non-military targets inside Russia
His hope is that if he can get Ukraine to retaliate by attacking non-military targets in Russia, he can “muddy the waters” morally and get some nations to become more fearful regarding providing military support to Ukraine. He likely also hopes that this will increase his soldiers willingness to fight---after all, they will no longer be attacking a friendly country that meant them no harm but “killing Nazis who murdered Russians.”
3) Russia wants to force civilians to flee or hide in order to reduce logistical support for guerilla fighters
In certain areas, Russia may have been attempting to force civilians to hide so that they could not provide logistical support for guerillas. If civilians are afraid to go out, they cannot carry ammunition for guerillas in the back of their vans, etc. And if civilians are not present, it becomes harder for guerilla fighters to blend in with the general public---you cannot blend into the crowd when there is no crowd.
4) Russia is looking to induce chaos to harm Ukraine’s logistical system
If Ukraine’s roads are being used by fleeing civilians, they are not available to trucks that might be bringing supplies, soldiers, etc. to key battlegrounds. In essence, Russia wants to create traffic jams that will harm the Ukrainian war effort.
5) Russia is hoping to demoralize Ukraine and get into a favorable negotiating position
The more civilians and civilian infrastructure Russia attacks, the more it will cost Ukraine to rebuild once the war is over---and the higher the cost Ukraine associates with continuing the fight.
6) Russia is hoping to distract Ukraine’s military from purely strategic fighting into defending civilians.
If Ukrainian soldiers must be deployed to defend fleeing civilians, that is fewer soldiers who are available to attack the enemy---indeed, this is one of the historical reasons for having a separate national guard; to have a division of labor where one group focuses on attack while the other focuses on defense.
7) Russia wants to disrupt Ukraine’s agricultural production so that international pressure in favor of ending the war grows quickly
General chaos makes regular agricultural activity impossible. As Ukraine produces about 15% of the world’s calories, Putin might hope that support for Ukraine’s government might dwindle as the costs of food scarcity mount. Of course, this could backfire---with countries providing more support to Ukraine in order to ensure that Ukraine wins more quickly, but he is confident that if they see Russian victory as inevitable, this will bring them to withdraw their support.