We are witnessing an unprecedented series of events in the House: A series of events that could not occur without the cooperation of Democrats. The Freedom Caucus, as they have named themselves, is refusing to vote for the presumptive future Speaker, Kevin McCarthy. This in turn is preventing him from receiving the majority vote he needs to assume office. However, while many media outlets claim that the speaker “requires 218 votes” to win election, this is not true. The speaker, in fact, requires a majority of those present and voting for a speaker by a specific surname. This means that Democrats are implicitly condoning this chaos because all they would need to do to end it is, well, either vote present or leave the floor to go do something else, anything else—get a beer, go to a spa, read a book, take a long walk, or even answer letters from their constituents. Kathleen Clarks remark, “So we have to be here to make sure that we are doing everything possible to end this crisis to get a functioning House of Representatives, and to get to work for the American people,” could not be farther from the truth.
Despite Democrat speeches shaming the Republicans over this “travesty of Democracy” the Freedom Caucus are creating by not voting as they are told, the Democrats must feel that they have something to gain from this chaos, as they could easily choose to end it.
Of course, media commentators have happily hid this important fact from you: A fact that is key to understanding exactly what is going on. The Democrats must be getting something out of this—something more than a chance to humiliate Republicans as there are plenty of people on the Hill who understand the role of Democrats in this mess—or they would simply take a day off. We will return to this point in due time. First, however, we must discuss the two separate factions within the Republican party opposing McCarthy.
The first group is looking to get concessions from McCarthy, mostly concerning House rules, while the second group opposes McCarthy’s speakership because of the back room dealing with Super-PAC’s that made him the presumptive nominee. The Congressional Leadership Fund, an independent super PAC that backs Republican House candidates, reached an agreement with the Club for Growth in return for supporting McCarthy’s bid: The CLF would not spend any money in open seat primaries in safe Republicans districts—allowing the Club for Growth to see more of its candidates nominated. Both of these groups have easily understood motives.
This leaves the Democrats, whose motives must be one of the following three things: 1) They are hoping, despite its low probability, that Republicans fail to show up for the vote, allowing them to vote in their choice for Speaker, 2) they are looking to make Republicans look ineffectual in the eyes of the public by hiding their own role in this process, or 3) they see strategic value in some of the rule changes that first group of Republicans are looking for. The first motive, however, seems unlikely as a Democrat would not hold the Speakership for long as it is possible to remove the Speaker with a no confidence vote, called a “motion to vacate”. While these motives are not mutually exclusive, the third seems to be the most significant: As these Republicans are pushing for rules that would make adding amendments to bills easier. It is likely Democrats are hoping to take advantage of a freer amendment process in order to add aspects of Biden’s agenda to Republican legislation.
The current chaos is only occurring because Democrats are consenting to it—indeed, encouraging it. Analysts should be asking why.
A few side points:
1) By even mentioning the possibility of nominating Trump, Gaetz encourages Democrats to vote present during the next round of voting. This means that if Gaetz were to do it, he would have to keep it secret beforehand. Indeed, the smart move might be to start a rumour that Gaetz was going to nominate Trump in order to convince Democrats to give up their resistance. Constitutionally speaking, one does not need to be a member of the House to become Speaker, by the way. Trump would never accept the position, as he would be subject to constant motions to vacate that would seriously disrupt the ability of the House to conduct business.
2) An interesting move might be to threaten to nominate Tulsi Gabbard as she might be able to garner the votes of Democrats and Republican defectors. This threat alone might force McCarthy into making further concessions.
3) The Republicans opposing McCarthy out of general enmity need to find an alternative candidate who is both preferable to them and capable of convincing Democrats to either vote for them. Apart from advancing such a candinate, one like Tulsi Gabbard, they have no prospect of winning this fight. They are completely without a strategy.