The drone attack on the Kremlin, if we can call it that, was not an assassination attempt against Putin—Putin does not sleep at the Kremlin, and the attack occurred around 2AM. That Putin even tried to pass this off as an assassination attempt suggests that something is up.
Before we dive into theories regarding just what happened here, let’s go over what we know:
Two men were standing on the Kremlin dome during the event.
The Kremlin claims to have shot the drone down using “electronic radar assets” which is interesting because it is not clear how that would cause an explosion. It exploded before touching the dome. It appeared to be carrying a simple explosive, rather than a cluster bomb or incendiary device.
The location of the explosion is quite picturesque, a target of high symbolic value.
The attack occurred at a time when few people would be around, making the two men on the dome more suspicious.
I do not believe we have enough information to determine what happened here with any certainty. We can, however speculate about five distinct perpetrators
Russian partisans.
This seems like the most likely explanation. It would explain the amatuerishness of the attack: the drone would not have impressed at a fireworks display. Partisans might have limited resources forcing them to make do.
Russia itself.
In 1999, it is alleged, Russia carried out a series of apartment bombings to justify their war in Chechnya. These bombing killed 300 people; Russia is not squeamish about its false flags. Putin would have chosen to do something much more dramatic than this; something that might have made the West back off its support of Ukraine. Russian propaganda has struggled with how to represent this, refusing to air video of the “attack.” Russia said nothing about the attack for 12 hours. Generally, a media campaign kicks off very quickly after a false flag attack. If this were a false flag, we would expect a more coordinated media campaign. Putin is not a man who likes to look weak, and this drone attack makes Kremlin security look pathetic, further arguing against the false flag narrative. Putin’s false flags tend to involve mass casualties, like those seen in the apartment bombings. This is not his style. That said, if this was a false flag, I can see five reasons for it: A) To build up public support for another round of mobilization, B) To make Westerners fear the war is getting out of control and reduce support for Ukraine, C) To justify renewed assassination attempts against Zelensky. D) Provide cover for an attack on the Zaporizhya nuclear plant, which will reduce Ukraine’s freedom of maneuverer as part of the coming counter offensive. E) A fifth reason I am adding today, March 8th, is the to justify the cancellation of the Victory Day Parade. A possibility that should not be discounted is an anti-war faction inside the government who might be doing this to humiliate the government. Partisans, however, still seem more likely.
Ukraine itself.
Ukraine gains little from this attack. It would jeopardize its support from the West while offering no tactical advantage beyond possibly provoking Russia into expending missiles and drones prior to their counterattack, esp. if it gets Russia to waste them on symbolic targets. That said, it places Zelensky's safety at risk as it gives Moscow an excuse to come after him directly again. It also exposes Ukraine's ability to hit targets in Moscow and encourages Putin to tighten his security, jeopardizing future operations. If Ukraine did strike, they did it within Russia: Russian air defenses are not so porous, esp. around Moscow, to allow this breach from far away.
Ukrainian partisans inside Russia.
This is similar to the first option. If Ukrainian partisans did this, then they likely did it for emotional reasons.
NATO
NATO gains little from this and would have made use of better technology and planning. Interestingly, Russia has not called in the US ambassador—or expelled any US diplomats. If Russia really believed the US was behind this, we would expect at least one of these two actions.
I would rate the probabilities this way.
Partisans 70%: Russian 50%, Ukrainian 20%
Russian False Flag: 10%
Russian Governmental Faction Opposed to the War: 10%
Ukrainian Regular/Special Forces: 5%
Chechen Terrorists: 5%
In the light of the drone attacks on Russian suburbs, which also involved using weak or no ordinance, I am upping the probability that this was Ukrainian action. Also, the fact that the Victory Day parade was not cancelled and no new mobilization was announced significantly reduces the probability of a Russian false flag.
1) Ukraine --- 50%
2) Ukrainian partisans---30%
3) Russian partisans---10%
4) Other --- 8%
5) False Flag --- 2%
Please see my new post. I have updated the probability of this being a Russian false flag operation because of the cancelation of the May 9th Victory Day Parade.