A private plane carrying Prigozhin and the Wagner No. 2 Dmitry Utkin crashed near Moscow. Prigozhin and Utkin are assumed dead. Of course, his death has not been confirmed and in these strange times we cannot completely rule out “spy novel” type subterfuge.
The death of Prigozhin is not unexpected: Most of us assumed Putin would take his revenge eventually. What is surprising is how little Prigozhin did to avoid this fate, how quickly Putin took his vengeance, and the means by which Putin carried out these assassinations. [To anyone who doubts that this was an assassination, consider that this was a beautiful summer day, that there was no radio traffic suggesting that the plane was experiencing technical difficulties, and that the Russian government was able to verify that Prigozhin was on the plane within minutes of people inquiring, an efficiency atypical of the Russian government. As a graph below will demonstrate, Embraer has the best safety record of any major manufacturer of passenger aircraft. This was no accident.]
Putin normally kills people using poison; in order both to fine-tune the amount of pain the target experiences and also the amount of deniability/undeniability associated with the hit: I think it is likely Putin decided on a plane crash because it grants him more deniability—and that the poisoning of Utkin, Prigozhin, and other high ranking Wagnerites close together would raise more suspicion than a single plane crash: Of course, the leaders of Wagner should never have shared a plane for precisely this reason. While this deniability is not much, small differences in deniability can have serious repercussions. If everyone knows Putin killed Prigozhin, that is very different from everyone knowing everyone knows (or everyone else knowing everyone knows that everyone knows—that situation breeds revolutions). Moreoever, Prigozhin and Utkin should have known that Wagner’s “top-heaviness,” i.e. its lack of other high-level and mid-level commanders, made it vulnerable to a decapitation strike: And Wagner should have acted accordingly—if not for the sake of preserving Wagner, since the leaders of Wagner might not have cared about what happened to the group after their deaths, then for the sake of maintaining a plausible threat of retaliation against the Kremlin. It is possible, however, that Wagner was tight on funds and that this is the reason they did not charter separate planes. Still, however, it would have been better to simply send one representative of Wagner wherever they were going.
Putin’s actions have reduced the chance of future coup attempts in the near future, but they have increased the likelihood of his assassination. People now know you cannot simply send Putin to his dacha as was done with Khruschev: You have to kill Putin or die yourself. “If you strike a king, you must kill him.”
Some questions I think people should be asking:
1) Why did Putin decide on hitting his plane? (Some speculation regarding this is in the post, but other answers should be considered). Was this a demonstrative act? Clearly, Putin likely killed some innocent pilots and risked collateral damage—even if this was still a rather small risk. This action seems reckless; why is Putin being driven to such recklessness? Was the recklessness and theatricality the point?
2) Did Putin use a bomb, or was it a SAM or air-to-air missile? Or was the plane mechanically sabotaged? A bomb would allow Putin to scapegoat other people in the Russian elite. A SAM will allow him only to scapegoat people within the MOD—and even then only at some considerable risk as the MOD keeps a decent paper trail. There are rumors that others in the Russian elite have taken out contracts against Prigozhin (though these contracts could themselves be an elaborate cover for the FSB or Putin). At first, I thought a bomb was more likely. However, based on the analysis here, I do think a SAM, specifically an S300 missile, is the most likely culprit. The video of the falling plane shows that it is missing a wing; however, a bomb planted on the plane would have blown out the fuselage. The plane shows tiny puncture marks, the kind that the small metal fragments of a SAM create. [Update: New intelligence analysis is leaning towards a bomb. Obviously, the fact that the debris field was concentrated and that a wing fell off requires explanation—as well as the perforations on the plane. I do wish I had not changed my assessment from what I originally wrote. A SAM was a rather indelicate solution that didn’t seem to fit with Putin’s methods. It is possible plastic explosive was placed under the wing, rather than smuggled on board. This would explain the wing falling off as well as the concentrated debris field and the small perforations of the cabin, which could be shrapnel from the wing explosion. There are rumors about a gift of wine—but Prigozhin is too smart for that
My new prediction is that plastic explosive was placed under the wing.]
Video of the crash
3) How will this affect the remaining Wagner soldiers and Russia’s ultranationalist factions? Will Wagner still be able to operate in Africa? Will this harm Putin’s popularity?
4) Why was Putin also looking to kill Utkin? What was Utkin’s role in the coup? There are rumors that he was actually leading the column that marched up the M5 towards Moscow. If that is the case, Utkin should never have shared a plane with Prigozhin. That move only makes sense if Utkin was someone Putin wanted to preserve.
5) Why didn’t Prigozhin get the hell away from Russia? He would have been safer in Belarus—and still safer elsewhere. Was Putin holding Prigozhin’s relatives hostage? Perhaps Prigozhin was living it up before he had to face his death.
6) How will Russian media report on this?
7) Will Prigozhin become a martyr for Russian ultranationalists?
8) Does this reduce Putin’s credibility in negotiations? He negotiated with Prigozhin and then turned his back on that deal. Part of the reason this war is happening is that Putin, like Hitler, has lost credibility in negotiations.
There are a lot of questions here. A lot of questions.
[1. Note: Embraer, the manufacturer of the plane Prigozhin was in, has the best safety record among major airplane manufacturers. This makes an accident even less likely—for any people harbouring doubts. ]
[2. Note: There is a very small group of people who are doubtful of Putin’s responsibility for this. Let’s put those speculations to rest.
We know Putin ordered this; it certainly was not Ukraine. Ukraine does not benefit from killing Prigozhin, who is a problem for Russia—and therefore an asset to Ukraine—at this point. If Ukraine had the ability to destroy private flights near Moscow, they would choose other targets. They would not kill a man whose very existence creates an internal security risk for Putin.
As for the theory that someone else in Putin’s circle did this, other Russian elites would not take such a bold move at this point. Delivering Prigozhin as a gift is more likely to earn Putin’s ire for disobedience than it is to earn his favor—esp. given the overt character of the assassination. Independent initiative is going to look a lot like rebellion; after all, wasn’t Prigozhin himself a go-getter?]
[3. Why did Utkin and Prigozhin travel on the same plane? Mark Galeotti speculates that Prigozhin did not care what happened to Wagner after his death and that separating a president and vice president is done for “continuity.” To my mind this seems like a rather ill-considered answer. Clearly, Prigozhin should have understood that an intact Wagner represented a deterrent to Putin—a threat of retaliation—even if he himself didn’t care about maintaining the organization for its own sake as part of his legacy, or whatnot.
A much more plausible explanation is that Prigozhin thought Putin needed Wagner in order to maintain his position in Africa: And that by putting all the Wagner heads in one plane, he was actually making himself safer. This, of course, turned out to be a miscalculation.]
https://youtu.be/Eufu4eeVqAs?si=jYpa2oXhqUBPZxFR William Spaniel on Wagner's structural flaws.
https://youtu.be/1hE8CvA-Vlo?si=y_RP3KVHPg2-f51-