While Putin's saber rattling does look ominous, invading Ukraine would be a serious mistake: Of course, that does not mean he won’t do it. But it would be a massive mistake.
1. The Russian public does not favor invasion.
2. Ukraine's own leadership, with more skin in the game, seems far less concerned than Washington.
3. The Olympic truce is still in play. With the Olympics being hosted in China, and with China being a key economic and military ally (esp. key if Western sanctions take affect after an invasion), it would not be good to have ruined their Olympic games. If Russia does invade, it will be after the games finish.
4. Biden is looking for an approval bump after "staring down the Russians." He thus has a huge interest in playing up the risk involved here.
5. Russia's own reserves are not called up. The divisions being deployed are not yet at full strength.
6. Similar military exercises occurred last year. Putin's plan may be to play this game every winter until we become accustomed to it and then, and only then, strike. Or he may be trying to get concessions from Ukraine in exchange for not engaging in this yearly sabre rattling.
7. Russia’s ability to sell natural gas, and its overall economy, would be seriously damaged.
8. Ukraine’s military is vastly more competent than it was in 2014. This will not be a short war, if it occurs, but rather the single bloodiest conflict in Europe since WWII. Those “experts” who argue that this will be easy for Russia are wrong. And even if Russia does win easily, they will face years of IRA-like asymmetric warfare.
9. This conflict carries a serious risk of escalating into a nuclear conflict or a “conflict of infrastructure strikes” that could end up with NATO attacking Russian pipelines and Russia attacking European and American energy and information infrastructure.
This war will threaten world food supplies and harm both Russia and China’s efforts to gain international influence—the sort of influence the “belt and road” initiative is designed to create.
If a war happens, it will be a tragedy.
On the other hand, Putin's 125 million yacht just left a German port it had been harbored in: Previously, that had been another fact suggesting against invasion. No need to lose your yacht.
Well, this post didn't turn out to be correct: But I think I made the false assumption of thinking Putin cared about the well being of the Russian people, when he only cares about his own greatness and future Russian greatness.