In a recent podcast, Ted Cruz discussed his belief that the Democratic Party is likely to replace President Joe Biden with former First Lady Michelle Obama as their 2024 presidential candidate. He did not, mind you, present it merely as a possibility: He considered it the most likely scenario. When a person with Cruz’s connections makes such a prediction, it would be unwise not to take notice.
In Cruz's vision, the most probable and potentially consequential scenario unfolds in August 2024 when influential figures within the Democratic Party decide to set aside Joe Biden and instead introduce Michelle Obama as their preferred candidate. While Cruz did not speculate on the exact mechanism, a number could be used to achieve this, including—if the timing works out—Democratic Senators threatening to vote in favour of impeachment or Biden’s cabinet invoking the 25th amendment.
Cruz's reasoning behind this proposition revolves around the idea that this strategic move could help the Democrats sidestep the challenges associated with choosing one frontrunner from a pool of prominent political figures. These figures include Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, Vice President Kamala Harris, and California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Furthermore, rather astoundingly, Cruz asserts that former President Barack Obama already wields substantial influence within the Biden administration and that this fact might serve as the motivation behind Michelle’s run: Running Michelle would allow Obama to retain a very large, albeit likely reduced (for what man truly controls his wife?), level of influence over the White House—any candidate the party promotes over Joe Biden, on the other hand, would not be under his influence. Cruz's suspicion that Biden may not be the primary decision-maker in today’s White House serves as a potential explanation for the growing media scrutiny surrounding the current president. I had previously wondered whether Obama had a disproportionate influence over Joe—esp. when I saw Obama being treated like the real president on one occasion while Joe wandered around being shunned, but I put aside those doubts as “conspiracy theory.” However, that someone as well-established in Washington as Ted Cruz believes this is going on significantly increases the probability that it actually is.
Cruz believes Michelle Obama's candidacy could serve as a unifying force within the Democratic Party—and allow much of Barack Obama’s continued popularity to be repurposed into defeating Trump. He suggests that her potential campaign could be framed as "the Obamas stepping in to rescue the nation," thereby elevating her above other Democratic contenders.
Interestingly, despite Michelle Obama's apparent endorsement of Joe Biden's performance, she refrained from explicitly endorsing him for a second term when asked in November 2022. One has to wonder why.
Of course, this could—as a practical matter—make Barack Obama a five-term president: A worrying prospect for those of us who fear entrenched political power.