If Democrats Are Smart, They Will Vote to Keep McCarthy
They Should Vote Against Matt Gaetz's Resolution: But They Probably Won't
If Democrats vote to unseat McCarthy, they will be undermining their own agenda. Of course, a self-destructive vote is possible, but—if political logic dominates—McCarthy should be able to survive this vote to unseat him. That said, I think political logic won’t dominate: Election logic will, and McCarthy will be unseated.
1) Any Republican replacement for McCarthy is likely to be “more MAGA” and more sceptical of funding Ukraine than McCarthy.
2) Given that what McCarthy is being attacked for is his failure to curtail spending, his inability to obtain more aggressive border security, and his—relatively—pro-Ukraine stance, anyone who replaces him is likely to be more extreme, and less able to compromise with the Democrats, than he is. Democrats should not want this.
3) A successful unseating of McCarthy will raise Gaetz’s political profile. This is bad long term both for the Republican party, despite the fact that I think the man is quite clever and talented, and for the Democrats. They should not want to hand Gaetz, and his MAGA caucus, a win.
So, several months ago, I would have confidently predicted that McCarthy would retain his seat. He certainly does not seem worried when he is interviewed about it.
However, I believe Democrats are too emotional and irrational—and too worried about social signalling—to carry out the game theoretically correct move of defecting. Objectively, Democrats ought to have signaled credibly to Gaetz that they would vote for McCarthy to remain in his seat—avoiding the need to go on the record about it: This would have, in turn, prevented him from even filing his motion. Now that the vote is here, Democrats have something of a hot potato on their hands: Even if the smart move is to vote to retain McCarthy, every Democrat will want to say “not it.” There is a massive coordination problem that I think, if I understand how they work and think, should lead to few if any pro-McCarthy votes. Think about it this way, there is a reason Democrats did not propose this motion to unseat themselves: They know it is not in their interests. However, there is also a reason Gaetz is proposing it; he knows he can get Democrats to vote against their own interests because of the need to signal to their base. Democrats ought to understand that Gaetz is punishing the speaker for compromising with them and that you don’t garner additional compromise by helping Gaetz carry out his punishment. They are making Gaetz and his MAGA caucus into kingmakers.
The only way that this vote could make strategic sense for the Democrats is if they know for a fact that the candidates, or most of the candidates, who are likely to replace McCarthy are more favourable to them; this only makes sense if McCarthy’s most probable replacement is more moderate. That is unlikely given the fact that Gaetz’s own calculations clearly don’t run that way, and that man is nothing if not cunning. Gaetz certainly has a better sense of who is likely to replace McCarthy than the Democrats are. He is tied into those social networks more closely; he is more calculating and strategic. Furthermore, McCarthy’s successor will be labouring under the threat of further retaliation by Matt Gaetz and the MAGA caucus: So, even if he is more moderate by disposition, he is unlikely to be more moderate in practice.
Gaetz leads a caucus of about 20 Republicans—if Democrats are too daft to defect and he holds his coalition together, McCarthy will be gone.
There will be a motion to vacate before they vote to unseat. If Democrats are going to defect or abstain, they should do so on this motion. If it goes to the floor for a proper vote, McCarthy will be gone. For signaling reasons, it is better to vote, or abstain, on the motion to vacate than to vote against unseating.
That said, no matter how this plays out, Gaetz is likely to be ejected from the House for ethics reasons. Republicans who supported McCarthy will vote in favor of it, and Democrats, who realize Gaetz’s actions will soon place an even harder to work with speaker into office, will be sick and tired of his antics—not to mention the fact that the ethics complaints appear to have some inherent validity. If you want Ukraine funding to go through, Gaetz is a central node that you should want to remove. Filling this motion should prove to be the end of Matt Gaetz’s career. Marjorie Taylor Greene is, of course, completely wrong when she claims that Republican voters are going to punish Congressmen for this. I don’t believe Gaetz is that popular. That said, if the MAGA caucus finds a new leader, they will have become more powerful as a result of this whole debacle.
However this plays out, this should be the end of Gaetz’s career.
McCarthy proved himself as a back stabbing self promoter, never could be trusted. So unfortunately things will have to spiral deeper to new lows before it can get better.
I think the ultimate failure of this whole situation lies with McCarthy himself. Look back at his actions over time. It’s all evident.