From General Petraeus: The Expansion of the War into Moldova
His Summary from the Report Given by the Institute for the Study of War
Something I anticipated may be taking shape, namely Russia attacking Moldova in order to have a staging base for air attacks on the supply line out of Lviv and, more importantly, for a two-pronged attack on Odessa. When I discussed this possibility with people on Quora, they were quick to dismiss it saying, “Ukraine is in the way.” However, it is not very much of Ukraine that is in the way if you approach from the Black Sea. Furthermore, Russia already has considerable forces in Transistria. There is credible intelligence coming out of Ukraine that Russia is planning a false flag attack on Transnistria to justify taking action in Moldova.
If Russia occupies Moldova, it would leave Ukraine with a difficult problem: Attack the forces in Moldova and risk civilian casualties that would anger Romania, which has very close ties to Moldova, and possibly reduce NATO support for the war, or leave Russia with a safe haven from which it can conduct operations in the South.
Here is Petraeus’s post:
- The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border (in NE Ukraine) and in Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence has observed Russian convoys with unmarked military equipment and personnel dressed in uniforms resembling those worn by the Ukrainian military move to areas near the Chernihiv Oblast border to enable Russia to accuse Ukrainian forces of violating the territorial integrity of Belarus.
- The Kremlin also appears to be setting conditions to stage a false flag operation in Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova, claiming that Ukrainian forces crossed that border. This does not indicate that Putin intends to attack Moldova, as he lacks military capability for that; rather, it points toward an escalation in his ongoing efforts to undermine the Moldovan state.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deliver boilerplate rhetoric arguing that the Russian military is fighting neo-Nazism in Ukraine and protecting “our people in our historical lands.”
- Putin seems more concerned with appealing to ultranationalist pro-war ideologues and tired rhetorical gestures than with presenting any new approach to achieving the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine.
- Putin appears to persist in his belief that Russia’s will to fight will outlast the West’s will to support Ukraine. Moreover, Putin’s demands for loyalty over competence among elites is forcing them to refrain from being honest with him about the progress of the war, and noted that Putin gets information of “poor” quality as a result.
- NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg stated on February 23 that NATO has seen signs that Chinese officials may be planning to send lethal aid to Russia.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Russian MoD fulfilled Wagner Group’s complete artillery ammunition request on February 23. This followed Prigozhin's public complaints and immense support for Prigozhin in the Russian information space.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian authorities announced that they completed the repair of the Kerch Strait Bridge road spans ahead of schedule.
- Russian officials continue to offer incremental (and insufficient) benefits to support Russian military personnel and defense manufacturers.
- Russian occupation officials continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian children through the installation of military-patriotic educational programs in occupied areas.