Fears Surrounding the Upcoming Offensive
It looks like Ukraine is massing two forces—one in Zaphoriya and one in Kherson. I strongly suspect that sometime on May 9th, the counter-offensive will begin in earnest (so-called shaping operations have already begun) since attacking on “Victory Day” is likely to have a demoralizing effect. These two forces are very likely to head towards Melitopol, a two-pronged attack that should allow Ukraine to begin threatening the Russian supply routes that run along the Black Sea Coast.
There are reports that Russia has planted bombs at the Zaphoriya power plant: I believe Russia detonate these and cause a meltdown in the plant, which would saddle Ukraine with a humanitarian disaster and make it dangerous for their troops to transit through the region, but that Russia will only do this is their defensive lines around Zaphoriya suddenly break.
I am not sure what the US policy response will be if Russia attacks the powerplant with the express purpose of causing a meltdown. However, we can expect escalation. Vlad Vexler believes that Russia has an interest in de-escalating the conflict in the short run so that it can consolidate its gains and rebuilt its forces. However, a very successful counterattack could change Russia’s strategic thinking.