Could Putin Use Neutron Bombs in Ukraine?
If Kiev is almost fully evacuated, I have to wonder whether the Russians would risk the use of neutron weapons, which they almost certainly have, to decapitate the government. Chemical weapons are more likely, but both are possible. For those of you who are not aware, a neutron bomb is an atomic bomb that has been designed to maximize the amount of neutron radiation it produces while minimizing the size of its atomic explosion: with the goal of killing people while leaving buildings and equipment untouched.
The Washington Post, by the way, working with the Soviets deliberately attempted to destroy the US's neutron bomb deployment in the late 70's, which was intended to allow us to stop Soviet armored columns in West Germany without creating fallout and damaging property. They took advantage of people's weird moral intuitions, similar to those that cause us to needlessly allow thousands to die each year because we require all organs to be donated rather than sold as part of someone's estate, to use the fact that it "attacks people rather than equipment" to undermine the project. What makes this esp. idiotic is that it is not as if a normal atomic blast isn't lethal to people. And, of course, a normal blast's fallout can have largescale environmental impacts. Neutron bombs are, in fact, more humane than regular atomic weapons on a variety of fronts. Anyway, rest assured, that the Russians developed their own neutron bombs while well-meaning Washington Post readers convinced us to end our program.
Neutron bombs are a near perfect fit for the Kremlin's task in taking Kiev. They would not produce fallout; they would leave the city’s structures unmolested and ready for occupation; they would avoid the dangers towards one’s own troops and people looking to reoccupy the area that are associated with chemical weapons. The use of neutron bombs would also demonstrate Putin’s nuclear resolve to the West, without actually incurring nuclear costs, and terrify the population of Ukraine into submission.
There are significant reasons for Russia to refrain from using neutron bombs, however. Their use would delay Russia’s reintegration into the world economy and strain their relationship with China. Most importantly, it would risk escalation with the US more than the use of chemical weapons would.
Consequently, I think the use of a neutron bomb or chemical weapons both remain unlikely—with the chance of seeing chemical weapons used being much higher, relatively speaking. But the use of either is not outside the realm of possibility.