The United States has significant defense commitments all over the world, and many would argue that with the US supplying Ukraine and positioning itself to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, that we don’t have the spare military capacity to begin a war with Iran. There is no doubt that if we begin a war with Iran, US military spending will have to go up substantially: That said, it is still absolutely the right move geopolitically.
Biden’s speech asking for aid money on behalf of Ukraine and Israel attempted to make a vague connection between the two causes—however, his comment went little beyond what we might expect from a high school student, “both wish to wipe a nation off the map.” This is true, of course, but the connections between Iran, Russia, and the rest of the BRICS coalition and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza run far deeper than that. The deeper truth is that both wars are part of an anti-American, Chinese-Russian led coalition’s attempts to destroy the American International Order.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine seeks not only to conquer Ukraine but to make an example of them to terrify any post-Soviet Republic that wishes for closer ties to Europe and the US. Its goal is to deter cooperation with the EU and US while encouraging cooperation with Russia and China.
Similarly, the Hamas attack on Israel seeks to disrupt the peace process between Israel and Saudi Arabia, disrupting Saudi Arabia’s ties to the US and the formation of a greater anti-Iranian coalition in the region. It is clear how this benefits Iran, but it also benefits China and Russia: Indeed, we can already see China, despite its pro-Palestinian stance, manoeuvring for advantage in this conflict by positioning itself as a peacemaker. By disrupting the peace process, China’s hope is that some members of the anti-Iranian coalition will come to it to “call off Iran” because US aid to Israel will essentially prevent them from cooperating with other anti-Iranian powers. This will increase their power in the middle east and reduce the influence the US has. Furthermore, any aid given to Israel, of course, reduces the supply of arms that can be sent to Taiwan.
Russia, on the other hand, sees itself as gaining from anything that harms the US. More specifically, Russia gains from this war in the following ways: 1) Aid to Israel might reduce the US ability to supply certain systems to Ukraine, 2) Chaos in the middle east will increase the price of oil, which will help increase the value of Russian exports and help stop the precipitous drop in the rubble’s value, 3) Russian diplomacy might help to increase Russia’s prestige internationally.
The BRICS coalition threatens US power. As such, part of US policy should be the following: Whenever moral justification and strategic opportunity present themselves together, smash whatever non-nuclear member of the BRICS coalition that you can. Pick off Russia and China’s non-nuclear allies whenever the opportunity presents itself. Iran is one such ally—and the fact that it is pursuing nuclear weapons only provides more justification for going in.
Now, there are those who will point to Iraq and Afghanistan and see an attack on Iran as simply repeating that folly: However, these people are forgetting the following things: 1) Iran’s nuclear program is real. There is no doubt about their attempts to develop them or their ability to do so; 2) Iran is engaged in far more egregious terrorism than Saddam ever did—at least beyond his own borders; 3) No state building will be necessary in Iran; if the Shia theocracy is removed, the other elements of Iranian society will produce something better without Western interference. In short, we won’t need to carry out a long occupation. We might not need ground forces at all. We might be able to work with air power and CIA organized internal guerilla forces. This means that a properly executed series of “punishment strikes” combined with the arming of irregulars could actually free up military resources in comparison to a long term deployment to prevent “a broader war.” Either way, the punishment of a BRICS member, its horrific evisceration, will deter other countries from pursuing ties with Russia and China. Furthermore, an attack on Iran will prevent Iran from supplying Russia with more some of the drones they have been using in Ukraine—an added bonus.
Here are the actions I believe the US and Israel should take:
1) Qatar must be pressured to hand over Hamas leaders for prosecution at the Hague. Absent that, Mossad or the CIA should carry out assassinations. Qatar will complain, but they will live with the fiat accompli.
2) The US must conduct an air war against Iran, specifically to harm their nuclear capacity and to decapitate the government, giving popular uprisings a chance to overthrow the regime. Even if these do not succeed, the need to rebuild military capacity will divert funds from proxy war efforts.